With the release of the latest CPI and PPI data, inflation has increased month-to-month for the first time since March, marking the first rise in over seven months. The Federal Reserve has reiterated its goal of reducing inflation to a 2% target within a year. While this development doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent interest rate hike, it suggests that current rates may remain unchanged for an extended period. Earlier optimism about a potential rate cut by the end of the year has significantly diminished in light of recent inflation figures and economic data. However, Retail Sales data presents a more positive outlook, showing continued economic growth ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index climbed 0.2% for the fourth month in a row, the government said Wednesday, matching the Wall Street forecast. The yearly rate of inflation crept up to 2.6% from 2.4%, marking the first upturn in seven months.
Producer Price Index
The PPI data met expectations overall but revealed that U.S. wholesale prices rose slightly faster in October. This suggests the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to low pre-pandemic levels may take longer than anticipated. Federal Reserve officials have described the recent uptick in inflation as a ‘bump,’ which could hinder the central bank from reducing high interest rates as quickly as Wall Street had hoped just a few months ago.
Retail Sales
Sales at retailers rose solidly in October and suggested the economy still has plenty of momentum heading into the holiday shopping season. Sales increased 0.4% last month, the government said Friday, and receipts in September were twice as strong as previously reported.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.78%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.09% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.07% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.
What’s Ahead
Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI will be early on the release schedule marking the first large end-of-the-year preliminary report. Following that immediately is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report.